As an intermittent economist and spasmodic physical/urban planner, I keep thinking about how our country can be cushioned from the massive economic slump that awaits us at the end of this fight against Covid19. As I discussed last time, our government is giving priority to public health solutions, and rightly so. But we know that we are likely in a situation now where the cure can just be as painful (or deadly) as the disease, figuratively speaking. A prolonged lockdown will slowly kill our economy, unless we find ways to keep it grinding.
What gives me hope is that we are an archipelago. Our islands are natural enclaves, and many have, through the years, developed some degree of self-sufficiency especially those that continue to be literally off-grid (power-wise), and still grographically separated even with the advent of transportation technologies.
I keep mentioning this word: enclaves, because this is a key, operative word in our recovery. Enclaves can be islands or areas that have enforcible boundaries like SBMA, or Clark, the peninsula of Bataan, the mountain city of Baguio, the Northern end point of Cagayan (Sta. Ana), etc. Enclaves are useful both in 1.) keeping Covid19 out, or 2.) trapping Covid19 in, depending on the situation of the enclave.
Let me cite a specific example, and let me use my home province Catanduanes, for this purpose. According to news it had one suspected case, a man who apparently boarded a bus from Pasay to Virac, and died of heart attack in the hospital from 3 weeks ago. But since then no one else has been deemed a suspected case, so it appears that the Island Province is clean of Covid19 (good for the sake of this example).
If the LGU of Catanduanes bites the bullet it can choose to implement a full lockdown with a policy to create an enclave to keep Covid19 out. They have to shut down their ports and airports from the rest of the country. They have to feed themselves out of what they have. They can fish, they can plant staple food, they can nurture their own animal farms, and so on. They will have no hotdogs, sardines, pack of noodles, chocolates, etc. So they will have to eat healthy food for a change (bit of levity there). But they also have to care for their own sick for the time being, so they will have to rely on homegrown, in-situ healthworkers.
These enclaves will be like small economic engines that will keep grinding while the big engine is unable to run efficiently. They must endeavor to produce surpluses so they can send them out. In the case of Catanduanes, out to the Bicol Region thru Albay or CamSur.
Meanwhile, upon success in flattening the local curve (19 cases today), the Bicol Region can also isolate itself from the rest of Luzon by agreeing with Quezon about creating a well-managed checkpoint at the border of Calauag, and closing its port in Sorsogon from entry of people/goods from Allen, N. Samar. Masbate as an Island can do the same as Catanduanes. On the other hand, the whole Island of Samar can also group together (Northern, Western and Eastern Samar) and create an enclave by closing off the port in Allen, the San Juanico Bridge, and other trading ports towards CARAGA. But I digress.
Later, the whole Bicol Region can regroup and create synergy so a larger regional economic engine can be made out of the smaller provincial engines.
The same can be done for Peninsular Bataan, which can regroup with SBMA later. Region II can isolate itself by closing off Claveria from Ilocos Norte and by making a checkpoint/barrier somewhere in Nagcarlan and in Kayapa (where the Ambuklao Road from Baguio/Benguet connects with Nueva Vizcaya). Baguio City will have to close off Kennon Road, Rosario-Pugo/Marcos Highway and Naguillan Road. Ifugao needs only to close off the road from Bagabag, I think.
Other places like Bohol, Guimaras, Panay Island, Mindoro, Sta. Ana, Cagayan, Aurora, the Bondoc Peninsula, etc. can also create their own enclaves and like the Catanduanes example, focus on food production and export surpluses to the Covid19 hotspots/provinces without any intention of importing.
By now you would have already figured out that the policy of creating enclaves is not just a public health policy, but is also about creating food production centers to keep feeding the country, to keep producing raw materials, to keep creating surpluses as economic fodder for the larger economic engine and keep it from running into the ground. These enclaves will also be able to keep their purchasing power, and lead the consumption-based path to full recovery once the Covid19 is eradicated.
In Metro Manila, the goverment should pass a strict policy to allow Covid19-free natural enclaves like gated subsivisions and condominium complexes to disallow any move-ins without risk of being hauled to court. People should stay where they are right now and not move residences. Hotels should be commissioned to house healthworkers, with full cost charged to government’s account. They should not be going home to residential areas everyday and put the lives of their families at risk. They should not waste time commuting while they can use the time better by resting in hotel rooms. They are “prized possessions” of the country and must be kept in tip-top shape. Meanwhile, hotel workers should be treated as frontliners and should also be housed in the same hotels until the outbreak is contained.
There are aspects to the problem at hand that can benefit from the physical/urban planning profession, and we have high-caliber planners here, say, from UP-SURP. We should get some of those guys into the TWGs that feed policy ideas to the IATF.
My 2 cents.
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