By now, many of us are already aware that there are 2 kinds of crisis we are facing: a public health crisis and an economic crisis. And there is an inverse relationship between the effects of available solutions to combat Covid19 as a public health crisis and the looming economic crisis. That means, obvious solutions such as social distancing, total lockdown/community quarantine, etc. are the right medicines towards the public health crisis, but will put a lot of pressure on the economy as these measures slow down the whole economic machine. The dilemma lies in the fact that government needs to keep collecting taxes as it needs to fund with cash the social amelioration package that it needs to effectively roll out to keep people out of the streets. But as there are no economic activities, what is to tax? It can of course borrow from the public l thru bonds or from Bangko Sentral as IOU, or borrow from IFIs. Whatever government does, it has to somehow try to keep the economic engine running lest it grounds to a full halt.
While on lockdown, people will still need to eat, so they need to buy food, medicines, and other basic needs like utilities. With the social amelioration package they will have some purchasing power. The problem however is that the lockdown’s physical aspect cuts off food producers from consumers. It also cuts off raw material suppliers to food manufacturers, and prevents medicine and other basic stocks from reaching the shelves. It can also prevent coals from reaching power plants, although the renewables will keep producing power albeit intermittently, i.e. hydros will keep running as long as rivers do not go dry come summertime. There is also an effect on mobility of workers in food production, manifacturing and in the various utlity subsectors. So the efficiencies will also suffer.
The key to break the impasse is for government to be more creative. That is, to try to impose the public health solutions but creatively keep the economic machine running even just on low gear. Now, it easier said than done, so I will try to give a few concrete examples:
1. Create “food highways” out of the armed forces. One of the scares often cited by exponents of full lockdown is that our citizens do not have the discipline. But the soldiers are our most disciplined lot. They will wear PPEs when told. So let them be our transportation backbone. Anyway, this is, by all definitions, a war.
2. Healthworkers should work and many if not all will work, but they need mobility in order to work. Moreover, suppliers of PPEs need to also keep making their products continously. Government can create a PNP P2P transport system for both. Let our cops drive police cars and motorbikes to ferry healthworkers (wearing proper PPEs). And also transport PPE supplies and donations.
3. Supervise private food/medicine/basic goods manufacturing companies in the creation of sterile workers enclaves. These enclaves are like free accommodations for workers that are shielded from possible viral contamination by ensuring no interaction with the “outside world”. This concept can be done also for construction camps so infra projects can continue especially in places that are far from Covid19 hotspots.
4. Government should focus on cordoning off hotspots so the public health policy can slowly shift from full lockdown (keeping the virus out) to trapping the virus transmission within enforceable borders (keeping the virus in) so that the rest of the country can reclaim normalcy.
5. Needless to say, supermarkets, groceries and banks need to be open. So workers/employees for these services should continue to work. But government needs to give guidance to supermarkets and grocery stores to hire people based on closest proximity to avoid long commutes. Hire people from next door. Banks should shuffle staffs so that they are reporting to the branch closest to them.
Any more creative ideas?
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